Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 92¢ · $255 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$254.78
$1.84
91¢ → 92¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 91¢ | $133.48 | $134.95 | +$1.47 | 25% 136-410 (546) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $75.24 | $75.24 | +$0 | 59% 3517-2395 (5912) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $16.69 | $16.69 | +$0 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $12.74 | $12.74 | +$0 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $9.52 | $8.46 | -$1.06 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.55 | +$0 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.73 | $2.16 | +$1.43 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
Invested
$133.48
Value
$134.95
PnL
+$1.47
Record
25%
136-410 (546)
Invested
$75.24
Value
$75.24
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3517-2395 (5912)
Invested
$16.69
Value
$16.69
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$12.74
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$8.46
PnL
-$1.06
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$1.43
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.