Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.5K
$12.69
89.7¢ → 90.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 89.6¢ | $536.79 | $539.28 | +$2.49 | 59% 3534-2417 (5951) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 89.6¢ | $505.85 | $507.99 | +$2.14 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90¢ | $324.22 | $326.02 | +$1.8 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $47.35 | $53.7 | +$6.35 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $41.25 | $41.25 | +$0 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.81 | $1.81 | +$0 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.9 | $1.81 | -$0.1 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.58 | $1.01 | +$0 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
Invested
$536.79
Value
$539.28
PnL
+$2.49
Record
59%
3534-2417 (5951)
Invested
$505.85
Value
$507.99
PnL
+$2.14
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$324.22
Value
$326.02
PnL
+$1.8
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$47.35
Value
$53.7
PnL
+$6.35
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$41.25
Value
$41.25
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.81
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$0.1
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$4.58
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.