Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 91¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$148.25
-$22.5
90¢ → 91¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $42.84 | $43.32 | +$0.48 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $54.68 | $37.98 | -$16.71 | 59% 3484-2373 (5857) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $31.5 | $21.88 | -$9.63 | 53% 172-153 (325) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $31.19 | $21.66 | -$9.53 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.76 | $17.85 | +$13.09 | 47% 1320-1474 (2794) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $5.34 | $3.71 | -$1.63 | 22% 106-387 (493) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.45 | $1.88 | +$1.43 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
Invested
$42.84
Value
$43.32
PnL
+$0.48
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$54.68
Value
$37.98
PnL
-$16.71
Record
59%
3484-2373 (5857)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$21.88
PnL
-$9.63
Record
53%
172-153 (325)
Invested
$31.19
Value
$21.66
PnL
-$9.53
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$13.09
Record
47%
1320-1474 (2794)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$3.71
PnL
-$1.63
Record
22%
106-387 (493)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$1.88
PnL
+$1.43
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.