Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 90¢ · $425 held · ends Nov 12

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$425.32

Combined PnL

$91.75

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 89.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$310.4

Total Shares349

Combined PnL+$9.18

Yes3 traders

Total Value$114.91

Total Shares1,045

Combined PnL+$82.58

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 87.3¢	$147.25	$150.15	+$2.89	26% 152-423 (575)
NM NM-P	Noavg 87¢	$126.53	$129.44	+$2.91	59% 3534-2412 (5946)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$110	+$82.97	— 2-9 (11)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 87¢	$43.5	$20.47	+$3.24	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87¢	$5.76	$5.9	+$0.13	53% 905-797 (1702)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.45	$4.45	+$0	32% 522-1096 (1618)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.76	$4.36	-$0.4	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.55	$0.55	+$0	51% 2503-2397 (4900)

GC-P

Invested

$147.25

Value

$150.15

PnL

+$2.89

Record

26%

152-423 (575)

NM-P

Invested

$126.53

Value

$129.44

PnL

+$2.91

Record

59%

3534-2412 (5946)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$110

PnL

+$82.97

Record

—

2-9 (11)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$43.5

Value

$20.47

PnL

+$3.24

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.