Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 98¢ · $488 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 22%
$488.11
$0.62
97.5¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-71 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.5¢ | $390 | $390.8 | +$0.8 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $67.49 | $67.55 | +$0.06 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $14.67 | $14.69 | +$0.02 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $5.99 | $5.99 | +$0 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.44 | $2.44 | -$0 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $2.1 | $2.19 | +$0.1 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.09 | $2.09 | +$0 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $2.35 | $2 | -$0.35 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.36 | $0.36 | +$0 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
Invested
$390
Value
$390.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$67.49
Value
$67.55
PnL
+$0.06
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$14.67
Value
$14.69
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$5.99
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$2.44
Value
$2.44
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.19
PnL
+$0.1
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.35
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.36
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.