Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $878 held · ends Nov 12

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$878.45

Combined PnL

-$3.66

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 85.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$865.29

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL-$4.13

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.16

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$0.47

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 86¢	$732.61	$785.49	-$4.59	34% 147-291 (438)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 85¢	$28.33	$45.6	+$0.27	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 85¢	$29.75	$29.93	+$0.17	12% 45-333 (378)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$13.16	$13.16	+$0.47	7% 7-88 (95)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.28	+$0.03	27% 133-354 (487)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$732.61

Value

$785.49

PnL

-$4.59

Record

34%

147-291 (438)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$28.33

Value

$45.6

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$29.75

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$0.17

Record

12%

45-333 (378)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.16

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$0.47

Record

7-88 (95)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.