England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$0.07
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$14.85 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48¢ | $712.69 | $727.54 | +$14.85 | |
GC GC-P | Noavg 51¢ | $106.67 | $106.67 | +$0 | 20% 92-378 (470) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $74.3 | $74.3 | +$0 | 59% 3470-2365 (5835) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $35.59 | $35.59 | +$0 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 51.2¢ | $21.05 | $20.97 | -$0.07 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Invested
$2,030.37
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$14.85
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Both legs:
Invested
$106.67
Value
$106.67
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
92-378 (470)
Invested
$74.3
Value
$74.3
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3470-2365 (5835)
Invested
$35.59
Value
$35.59
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Invested
$21.05
Value
$20.97
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.