Czechia vs. Spain: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.1K
$209.92
74.1¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 74.1¢ | $602.38 | $641.16 | +$38.78 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 26¢ | $189.44 | $360.66 | +$171.22 | 41% 260-381 (641) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 74.1¢ | $123.33 | $123.22 | -$0.1 | 38% 358-588 (946) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $13.76 | $13.76 | +$0 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $2.85 | $2.87 | +$0.02 | 48% 1401-1536 (2937) |
Invested
$602.38
Value
$641.16
PnL
+$38.78
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$189.44
Value
$360.66
PnL
+$171.22
Record
41%
260-381 (641)
Invested
$123.33
Value
$123.22
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
358-588 (946)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$13.76
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.87
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
1401-1536 (2937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.