Czechia vs. Spain: O/U 3.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 56¢ · $670 held · ends Nov 12

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$670.35

Combined PnL

$1.46

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$182.68

Total Shares232

Combined PnL+$0.25

Over2 traders

Total Value$50.73

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$1.21

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$411.69	$436.94	+$25.25	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.5¢	$263.37	$289.3	+$25.94
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.8¢	$148.32	$147.63	-$0.68
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 55¢	$90.42	$91.31	+$0.89	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 56¢	$57.46	$56.92	-$0.54	39% 395-620 (1015)
20 0x200f...7a96CTR<$100	Overavg 43.6¢	$47.57	$48.51	+$0.94	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 56.1¢	$34.55	$34.45	-$0.1	55% 683-554 (1237)
E5 0xe550...be3fCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.23	+$0.27	—

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$411.69

Value

$436.94

PnL

+$25.25

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Over$263.3740.5¢+$25.94

Under$148.3255.8¢-$0.68

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$90.42

Value

$91.31

PnL

+$0.89

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$57.46

Value

$56.92

PnL

-$0.54

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

0x200f...7a96CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.57

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$0.94

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$34.55

Value

$34.45

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

0xe550...be3fCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.27

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.