Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Czechia vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 34¢ · $666 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$666.19
-$0.96
33¢ → 33.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 33¢ | $580.77 | $581.21 | +$0.44 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $36.84 | $36.29 | -$0.55 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 33.9¢ | $26.28 | $25.57 | -$0.71 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $13.79 | $13.79 | -$0 | 61% 923-593 (1516) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $9.47 | $9.32 | -$0.14 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
Invested
$580.77
Value
$581.21
PnL
+$0.44
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$36.84
Value
$36.29
PnL
-$0.55
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$26.28
Value
$25.57
PnL
-$0.71
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$13.79
Value
$13.79
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
923-593 (1516)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$9.32
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.