Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (86%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Czechia vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 14¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$74.39
12.9¢ → 14.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 13¢ | $939.09 | $999.21 | +$60.12 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $200.28 | $194.59 | +$13.8 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 86¢ | $129 | $128.25 | -$0.75 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 11.4¢ | $54.14 | $66.34 | +$14.55 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $49.87 | $55.92 | +$8.29 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.5¢ | $27.11 | $32.88 | +$5.77 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 13.4¢ | $4.65 | $4.86 | +$0.21 | 27% 133-354 (487) |
Invested
$939.09
Value
$999.21
PnL
+$60.12
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$200.28
Value
$194.59
PnL
+$13.8
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.87
Value
$55.92
PnL
+$8.29
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$27.11
Value
$32.88
PnL
+$5.77
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.86
PnL
+$0.21
Record
27%
133-354 (487)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.