Czechia vs. Spain: O/U 0.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$1.1K
-$0.66
97.1¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 97¢ | $756.14 | $755.9 | -$0.24 | 51% 2503-2397 (4900) |
0F 0F62 | Overavg 97.3¢ | $165.59 | $165.45 | -$0.14 | 96% 23-1 (24) |
SE sentrio | Overavg 97.2¢ | $106.94 | $106.72 | -$0.22 | 41% 533-763 (1296) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $71.14 | $71.11 | -$0.03 | 50% 1206-1230 (2436) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $7.67 | $7.69 | +$0.02 | 32% 522-1096 (1618) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.1¢ | $3.6 | $3.48 | -$0.12 | 33% 544-1092 (1636) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.8¢ | $3.44 | $3.46 | +$0.02 | 32% 528-1110 (1638) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 2.4¢ | $0.24 | $0.28 | +$0.04 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
Invested
$756.14
Value
$755.9
PnL
-$0.24
Record
51%
2503-2397 (4900)
Invested
$165.59
Value
$165.45
PnL
-$0.14
Record
96%
23-1 (24)
Invested
$106.94
Value
$106.72
PnL
-$0.22
Record
41%
533-763 (1296)
Invested
$71.14
Value
$71.11
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
1206-1230 (2436)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
522-1096 (1618)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$0.12
Record
33%
544-1092 (1636)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
528-1110 (1638)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.