Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Czechia vs. Spain: Czechia O/U 0.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 49¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 12

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$212.9

Combined PnL

$6.56

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$188.85

Total Shares364

Combined PnL+$5.7

Under4 traders

Total Value$24.05

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.87

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotradecopyCTR	Overavg 48¢	$94.02	$101.85	+$7.83	10% 20-174 (194)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$70.84	$69.09	-$1.75	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$15.33	$14.88	-$0.44	41% 534-766 (1300)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8.16	$8.4	+$0.24	33% 544-1120 (1664)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 50¢	$7.53	$7.76	+$0.23	32% 524-1097 (1621)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 48¢	$4.65	$4.99	+$0.34	33% 546-1093 (1639)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.97	$3.02	+$0.06	53% 920-807 (1727)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.85	$2.91	+$0.06	47% 1521-1691 (3212)

NotradecopyCTR

Over

Invested

$94.02

Value

$101.85

PnL

+$7.83

Record

10%

20-174 (194)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.84

Value

$69.09

PnL

-$1.75

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.33

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$0.44

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.24

Record

33%

544-1120 (1664)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$7.53

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$0.23

Record

32%

524-1097 (1621)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.34

Record

33%

546-1093 (1639)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.