Czechia vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 61¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$1.2K
$155.19
52.4¢ → 60.5¢
+15% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-22 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 52.2¢ | $680.97 | $796.48 | +$115.51 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
P1 P1kaso | Underavg 51¢ | $159.21 | $190.43 | +$31.22 | 6% 7-109 (116) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 55.9¢ | $124.01 | $125.29 | +$1.28 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.1¢ | $34.69 | $36.67 | +$1.98 | 48% 590-645 (1235) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $33.83 | $35.79 | +$1.95 | 54% 211-181 (392) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $22.87 | $15.83 | +$2.43 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $9.27 | $9.8 | +$0.53 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.6¢ | $7.13 | $6.96 | -$0.17 | 44% 431-541 (972) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $3.05 | +$0.45 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
Invested
$680.97
Value
$796.48
PnL
+$115.51
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
Invested
$159.21
Value
$190.43
PnL
+$31.22
Record
6%
7-109 (116)
Invested
$124.01
Value
$125.29
PnL
+$1.28
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$34.69
Value
$36.67
PnL
+$1.98
Record
48%
590-645 (1235)
Invested
$33.83
Value
$35.79
PnL
+$1.95
Record
54%
211-181 (392)
Invested
$22.87
Value
$15.83
PnL
+$2.43
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$9.27
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0.53
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$7.13
Value
$6.96
PnL
-$0.17
Record
44%
431-541 (972)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.45
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.