Czechia vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$96.65

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 66.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$444.02

Total Shares551

Combined PnL+$28.02

Under10 traders

Total Value$591.58

Total Shares2,265

Combined PnL+$68.63

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 69.4¢	$407.61	$435.4	+$27.78	46% 485-564 (1049)
TA takeormakeCTR	Underavg 19.3¢	$155.54	$217.35	+$61.81	58% 3336-2405 (5741)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 26.1¢	$140.19	$144.76	+$4.58	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$86.84	$97.7	+$10.86	35% 221-416 (637)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 33.2¢	$56.4	$45.9	-$10.5	33% 563-1169 (1732)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$55.04	$42.36	-$12.68	34% 592-1164 (1756)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$20.31	$30.46	+$10.15	47% 21-24 (45)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 71¢	$8.39	$8.62	+$0.24	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$1	$7	+$6	16% 21-112 (133)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 36.9¢	$6.04	$4.42	-$1.62	32% 565-1192 (1757)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.35	+$0	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$0.24	$0.28	+$0.03	54% 1032-892 (1924)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$407.61

Value

$435.4

PnL

+$27.78

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

takeormakeCTR

Under

Invested

$155.54

Value

$217.35

PnL

+$61.81

Record

58%

3336-2405 (5741)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$140.19

Value

$144.76

PnL

+$4.58

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86.84

Value

$97.7

PnL

+$10.86

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.4

Value

$45.9

PnL

-$10.5

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.04

Value

$42.36

PnL

-$12.68

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.31

Value

$30.46

PnL

+$10.15

Record

47%

21-24 (45)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$8.39

Value

$8.62

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

+$6

Record

16%

21-112 (133)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.04

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$1.62

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.