Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Czechia vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $125 held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$125.4

Combined PnL

-$182.92

Smart Money Entry

6¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$123.89

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$3.82

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.51

Total Shares3,020

Combined PnL-$179.1

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 93.1¢	$109.69	$107.58	-$2.11	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 94¢	$13.32	$11.31	-$2.01	54% 1032-892 (1924)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 94¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	41% 589-849 (1438)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 6¢	$166.73	$1.39	-$165.34	46% 485-564 (1049)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$4.16	$0.03	-$4.12	34% 592-1164 (1756)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$3.71	$0.03	-$3.68	38% 15-25 (40)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$2.41	$0.02	-$2.39	33% 563-1169 (1732)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$2.33	$0.02	-$2.31	32% 565-1192 (1757)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$6.27	$0.01	-$1.26	49% 1307-1343 (2650)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$109.69

Value

$107.58

PnL

-$2.11

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.32

Value

$11.31

PnL

-$2.01

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$166.73

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$165.34

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.12

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.71

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.68

Record

38%

15-25 (40)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.41

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.39

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.33

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.31

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.26

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.