Spread: Spain (-3.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Czechia (63%) · Czechia at 93¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Czechia
8
Czechia 63%
$5.1K
$304.62
84.2¢ → 93¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCzechia at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Czechia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Czechiaavg 83¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$183.06 | 55% 1693-1391 (3084) |
FL Flaznorp | Czechiaavg 85.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$168.65 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Czechiaavg 84.2¢ | $99.39 | $86.73 | -$12.66 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Spainavg 12.8¢ | $99.67 | $77.84 | -$21.82 | 48% 590-645 (1235) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Spainavg 12.9¢ | $74 | $52.5 | -$16 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Czechiaavg 80.1¢ | $22.03 | $22.42 | +$0.39 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Spainavg 13¢ | $9.75 | $12.75 | +$3 | 29% 206-510 (716) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Czechiaavg 90¢ | $9 | $9 | +$0 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
Invested
$2,221.71
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$183.06
Record
55%
1693-1391 (3084)
Invested
$2,223.32
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$168.65
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$99.39
Value
$86.73
PnL
-$12.66
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$99.67
Value
$77.84
PnL
-$21.82
Record
48%
590-645 (1235)
Invested
$74
Value
$52.5
PnL
-$16
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$22.03
Value
$22.42
PnL
+$0.39
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$12.75
PnL
+$3
Record
29%
206-510 (716)
Invested
$9
Value
$9
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.