Spread: Spain (-2.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Czechia (25%) · Czechia at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Czechia
4
Czechia 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$40.41
Research grade
NeutralCzechia at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Czechia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P1 P1kaso | Czechiaavg 56.5¢ | $479.97 | $522.72 | +$42.75 | 0% 0-106 (106) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Spainavg 43.5¢ | $512.17 | $459.07 | -$53.1 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
| └ Spain leg | Spainavg 43.5¢ | $353.53 | $300.86 | -$52.67 | |
| └ Czechia leg | Czechiaavg 61.7¢ | $158.64 | $158.21 | -$0.43 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Spainavg 39.5¢ | $29.85 | $24.58 | -$1.32 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Spainavg 41.2¢ | $9.95 | $8.94 | -$1.02 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Spainavg 37¢ | $8.83 | $8.83 | -$0 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
Invested
$479.97
Value
$522.72
PnL
+$42.75
Record
0%
0-106 (106)
Invested
$512.17
Value
$459.07
PnL
-$53.1
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.85
Value
$24.58
PnL
-$1.32
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$9.95
Value
$8.94
PnL
-$1.02
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$8.83
Value
$8.83
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.