Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Czechia, while the market favors Spain (59%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Spain (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Czechia (43%) · Czechia at 42¢ · $656 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Czechia
7
Czechia 43%
1 arb excluded
$656.42
$0.3
40.8¢ → 41.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCzechia at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Spain 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Czechia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Spainavg 59.8¢ | $320.64 | $321.41 | +$0.78 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
| └ Spain leg | Spainavg 59.8¢ | $191.79 | $189.29 | -$2.5 | |
| └ Czechia leg | Czechiaavg 40¢ | $128.85 | $132.12 | +$3.27 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Czechiaavg 41¢ | $140.85 | $142.57 | +$1.72 | 33% 503-1013 (1516) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Spainavg 59¢ | $96.49 | $95.67 | -$0.82 | 61% 943-603 (1546) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Czechiaavg 40¢ | $155.33 | $37.12 | +$0.78 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Spainavg 60¢ | $32.09 | $31.55 | -$0.53 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Spainavg 60¢ | $12 | $11.8 | -$0.2 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Spainavg 60.8¢ | $38.75 | $8.61 | -$0.83 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Czechiaavg 40¢ | $7.5 | $7.69 | +$0.19 | 53% 177-159 (336) |
Invested
$320.64
Value
$321.41
PnL
+$0.78
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.85
Value
$142.57
PnL
+$1.72
Record
33%
503-1013 (1516)
Invested
$96.49
Value
$95.67
PnL
-$0.82
Record
61%
943-603 (1546)
Invested
$155.33
Value
$37.12
PnL
+$0.78
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
Invested
$32.09
Value
$31.55
PnL
-$0.53
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
Invested
$38.75
Value
$8.61
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
177-159 (336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.