Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Czechia vs. Spain: Draw at halftime?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $199 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$198.69

Combined PnL

-$70.82

Smart Money Entry

30.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$137.38

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$66.2

Yes7 traders

Total Value$61.31

Total Shares468

Combined PnL-$137.03

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 53¢	$35.48	$66.97	+$31.49	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$168.36	$60.97	-$107.39	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 65¢	$266.48	$42.27	+$19.13	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 39¢	$9.15	$23.44	+$14.29	48% 590-645 (1235)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.7	+$1.3	41% 589-849 (1438)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$5.25	$0.3	-$4.95	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.68	$0.02	-$0.66	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.62	$0.01	-$1.61	29% 206-510 (716)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.02	$0.01	-$1.01	33% 563-1169 (1732)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.9¢	$20.86	$0	-$20.18	47% 1704-1945 (3649)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$1.22	$0	-$1.22	56% 4529-3502 (8031)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.48

Value

$66.97

PnL

+$31.49

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$168.36

Value

$60.97

PnL

-$107.39

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

38791873984189

Invested

$266.48

Value

$42.27

PnL

+$19.13

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

$23.44

PnL

+$14.29

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$1.3

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.25

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$4.95

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.66

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.61

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.01

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.86

Value

PnL

-$20.18

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

PnL

-$1.22

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.