Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spain leading at halftime?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$967.82

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,876

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$545.85

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$362.81

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 48.4¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$815.43	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 62¢	$222.3	$344.4	+$122.1	61% 969-610 (1579)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 33.3¢	$100.85	$156.93	+$229.3	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 61.9¢	$513.43	$115.73	-$397.7	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$20.39	$32.08	+$11.7	41% 589-849 (1438)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$9.12	$8.69	-$0.43	48% 590-645 (1235)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$3.6	$3.75	+$0.15	35% 221-416 (637)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$43.06	$0.04	-$43.02	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 9.4¢	$5.43	$0.03	-$5.4	34% 592-1164 (1756)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$29.44	$0.03	-$29.41	33% 563-1169 (1732)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$27.24	$0.02	-$27.22	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$1	$0.01	-$0.99	43% 374-496 (870)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$17.48	$0.01	-$9.67	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$1.78	$0	-$1.78	44% 431-541 (972)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,839.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$815.43

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$222.3

Value

$344.4

PnL

+$122.1

Record

61%

969-610 (1579)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$100.85

Value

$156.93

PnL

+$229.3

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$513.43

Value

$115.73

PnL

-$397.7

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.39

Value

$32.08

PnL

+$11.7

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.12

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$0.43

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$43.06

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$43.02

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.4

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$29.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$29.41

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$27.24

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$27.22

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.99

Record

43%

374-496 (870)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$17.48

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.67

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

PnL

-$1.78

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.