Czechia vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,629

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.32

Total Shares517

Combined PnL+$7.12

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Underavg 79¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$447.91	27% 104-276 (380)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 89.1¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$172.32	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
poshposh	Underavg 79¢	$751.89	$951.28	+$199.39	48% 590-645 (1235)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 79¢	$343.27	$433.08	+$89.81	46% 485-564 (1049)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 78¢	$319.41	$409.3	+$89.89	60% 677-456 (1133)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 79.3¢	$38.96	$42.34	+$3.38	54% 1032-892 (1924)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 81¢	$35.23	$42.19	+$6.96	47% 1704-1945 (3649)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 86¢	$23.78	$12.99	+$1.56	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 5.4¢	$642.19	$5.2	+$37.86	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 81¢	$5.34	$4.92	-$0.42	41% 589-849 (1438)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$22.06	$0.06	-$22	40% 69-102 (171)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$5	$0.05	-$4.95	55% 499-416 (915)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$3.8	$0.01	-$3.79	33% 585-1187 (1772)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$1,689.02

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$447.91

Record

27%

104-276 (380)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,419.12

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$172.32

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$751.89

Value

$951.28

PnL

+$199.39

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$343.27

Value

$433.08

PnL

+$89.81

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$319.41

Value

$409.3

PnL

+$89.89

Record

60%

677-456 (1133)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$38.96

Value

$42.34

PnL

+$3.38

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$35.23

Value

$42.19

PnL

+$6.96

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$23.78

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$1.56

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$642.19

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$37.86

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$5.34

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$0.42

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$22

Record

40%

69-102 (171)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.95

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.79

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.