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4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$174.53

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 86.3¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,683

Combined PnL+$1.42

Yes4 traders

Total Value$225.66

Total Shares2,724

Combined PnL+$173.11

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$4.65	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$25.08	$214.34	+$189.26	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
VE Venusian	Noavg 97.6¢	$126.93	$128.57	+$1.64	32% 565-1192 (1757)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$205.11	$118.33	+$66.31	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.5¢	$17.25	$89.72	+$86.82
└ No leg	Noavg 98.7¢	$32.52	$28.61	-$20.51
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$97.6	$98.9	+$1.3	33% 585-1187 (1772)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$49.08	$42.91	-$6.17	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$11	-$16.03	— 2-10 (12)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.39	$0.27	-$0.12	46% 485-564 (1049)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.06	$0.05	-$0	41% 589-849 (1438)

RN1

Invested

$1,382.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$4.65

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$25.08

Value

$214.34

PnL

+$189.26

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Venusian

Invested

$126.93

Value

$128.57

PnL

+$1.64

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$205.11

Value

$118.33

PnL

+$66.31

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Both legs:

Yes$17.252.5¢+$86.82

No$32.5298.7¢-$20.51

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$97.6

Value

$98.9

PnL

+$1.3

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$49.08

Value

$42.91

PnL

-$6.17

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$11

PnL

-$16.03

Record

—

2-10 (12)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.9%

86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.