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3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 97¢ · $695 held · ended Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$694.79

Combined PnL

$8.89

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 97.3¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$628.96

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$0.58

Yes6 traders

Total Value$65.83

Total Shares2,089

Combined PnL+$8.31

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.1¢	$560.93	$561.47	+$0.54	46% 443-515 (958)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$52.87	$52.92	+$0.05	34% 564-1116 (1680)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$30	+$2.97	— 2-10 (12)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$14.58	$14.57	-$0.01	33% 539-1116 (1655)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.95	$14.37	+$1.42	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$7.05	$10.22	+$3.17	44% 165-210 (375)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$9.52	$9.85	+$0.33	47% 1666-1892 (3558)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.85	$1.22	+$0.37	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.12	$0.17	+$0.05	54% 997-856 (1853)

SnakeBall

Invested

$560.93

Value

$561.47

PnL

+$0.54

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$52.87

Value

$52.92

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$30

PnL

+$2.97

Record

—

2-10 (12)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$14.58

Value

$14.57

PnL

-$0.01

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.95

Value

$14.37

PnL

+$1.42

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$3.17

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.33

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.