Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Spain?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $606 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$606.31
$78.57
92¢ → 93¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92¢ | $167.78 | $167.78 | +$0 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 92¢ | $131.33 | $131.33 | +$0 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 92¢ | $122.13 | $122.13 | +$0 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $80 | +$52.97 | — 2-10 (12) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $24.45 | $38.82 | +$25.37 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $24.76 | $24.76 | +$0 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $20.22 | $20.44 | +$0.22 | 56% 4503-3474 (7977) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.74 | $11.74 | +$0 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.31 | $9.31 | -$0 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
Invested
$167.78
Value
$167.78
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$131.33
Value
$131.33
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$122.13
Value
$122.13
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$80
PnL
+$52.97
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$24.45
Value
$38.82
PnL
+$25.37
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$24.76
Value
$24.76
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
RN1<$100Invested
$20.22
Value
$20.44
PnL
+$0.22
Record
56%
4503-3474 (7977)
Invested
$11.74
Value
$11.74
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$9.31
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.