Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Spain?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$2.2K
$2.95
93.5¢ → 93.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$5.94 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $134.13 | $128.06 | -$6.07 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $103.71 | $102.75 | -$0.96 | 56% 88-70 (158) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $141.61 | $89.24 | +$1.67 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $71.05 | $72.27 | +$1.22 | 33% 533-1106 (1639) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $22.65 | $9.9 | +$0.01 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $6.23 | $7.3 | +$1.06 | 46% 438-515 (953) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $7 | $6.95 | -$0.05 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.22 | $1.34 | +$0.12 | 32% 536-1124 (1660) |
Invested
$1,768.04
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$5.94
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$134.13
Value
$128.06
PnL
-$6.07
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$103.71
Value
$102.75
PnL
-$0.96
Record
56%
88-70 (158)
Invested
$141.61
Value
$89.24
PnL
+$1.67
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Invested
$71.05
Value
$72.27
PnL
+$1.22
Record
33%
533-1106 (1639)
Invested
$22.65
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$1.06
Record
46%
438-515 (953)
Invested
$7
Value
$6.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0.12
Record
32%
536-1124 (1660)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.