Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Spain?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 2.3¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$124.66

Combined PnL

$7.67

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$104.98

Total Shares4,566

Combined PnL+$8.39

No2 traders

Total Value$19.68

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$0.71

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$40	$46	+$6	46% 440-515 (955)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$41.33	$43.68	+$2.34	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$12.36	$12.36	+$0	54% 994-856 (1850)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$10.81	$10.82	+$0.01	41% 552-797 (1349)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$72.1	$7.32	-$0.71	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.13	$2.08	-$0.05	32% 538-1128 (1666)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.7	$1.78	+$0.08	36% 209-369 (578)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.62	$0.62	+$0	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$46

PnL

+$6

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.33

Value

$43.68

PnL

+$2.34

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.36

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.81

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$72.1

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$0.71

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.4%

2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2834.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

2934.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.