Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Spain?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 90¢ · $683 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$682.63
$90.16
88.8¢ → 89.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 89¢ | $375.25 | $375.25 | +$0 | 33% 544-1092 (1636) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $110 | +$82.97 | — 2-9 (11) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $83.55 | $83.55 | +$0 | 33% 541-1119 (1660) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $49.05 | $49.07 | +$0.02 | 51% 2503-2397 (4900) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $75.69 | $24.03 | +$6.72 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $16.77 | $17.08 | +$0.31 | 53% 905-797 (1702) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $11.98 | $12.12 | +$0.14 | 59% 3534-2412 (5946) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $11.53 | $11.53 | +$0 | 41% 533-763 (1296) |
Invested
$375.25
Value
$375.25
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
544-1092 (1636)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$110
PnL
+$82.97
Record
—
2-9 (11)
Invested
$83.55
Value
$83.55
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
541-1119 (1660)
Invested
$49.05
Value
$49.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
2503-2397 (4900)
Invested
$75.69
Value
$24.03
PnL
+$6.72
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
Invested
$16.77
Value
$17.08
PnL
+$0.31
Record
53%
905-797 (1702)
Invested
$11.98
Value
$12.12
PnL
+$0.14
Record
59%
3534-2412 (5946)
Invested
$11.53
Value
$11.53
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
533-763 (1296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.