Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Spain?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $372 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$371.92
$16
86¢ → 86.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 86¢ | $195.04 | $196.17 | +$1.13 | 39% 74-117 (191) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $86.58 | $93.24 | +$6.66 | 44% 164-210 (374) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $39.67 | $41.34 | +$1.67 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.01 | $17.11 | +$0.1 | 53% 922-814 (1736) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.09 | $9.87 | +$6.78 | 48% 2125-2324 (4449) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $9.52 | $9.18 | -$0.34 | 47% 1541-1714 (3255) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.3 | -$0.1 | 33% 533-1106 (1639) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $0.6 | $0.7 | +$0.1 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
Invested
$195.04
Value
$196.17
PnL
+$1.13
Record
39%
74-117 (191)
Invested
$86.58
Value
$93.24
PnL
+$6.66
Record
44%
164-210 (374)
Invested
$39.67
Value
$41.34
PnL
+$1.67
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$17.01
Value
$17.11
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
922-814 (1736)
Invested
$25.09
Value
$9.87
PnL
+$6.78
Record
48%
2125-2324 (4449)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.18
PnL
-$0.34
Record
47%
1541-1714 (3255)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
33%
533-1106 (1639)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.