Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Spain?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 11¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 12

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$244.94

Combined PnL

$85.73

Smart Money Entry

6.3¢ → 10.5¢

+67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$190.25

Total Shares1,903

Combined PnL+$73.14

No3 traders

Total Value$54.68

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$12.59

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$97.41	+$73.23	— 2-10 (12)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$62.74	$62.74	+$0	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$29.4	$29.57	+$0.17	54% 994-856 (1850)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$28.16	$28.16	+$0	32% 538-1128 (1666)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 90¢	$48.78	$16.98	+$12.38	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.09	$8.14	+$0.05	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1	$1	+$0	41% 552-797 (1349)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.04	$0.95	-$0.09	47% 1625-1826 (3451)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$97.41

PnL

+$73.23

Record

—

2-10 (12)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.74

Value

$62.74

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.57

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.16

Value

$28.16

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$48.78

Value

$16.98

PnL

+$12.38

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.