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4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 97¢ · $836 held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$835.86

Combined PnL

$2.77

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 97¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$777.63

Total Shares801

Combined PnL+$0.36

Yes5 traders

Total Value$58.23

Total Shares1,997

Combined PnL+$2.41

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 97.1¢	$520.43	$520.97	+$0.54	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
SE sentrio	Noavg 97.1¢	$225.3	$225.07	-$0.23	41% 533-763 (1296)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.0K	$28	+$0.97	— 2-9 (11)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$20.08	$21.12	+$1.04	36% 204-357 (561)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$18.12	$18.07	-$0.04	50% 1206-1230 (2436)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$13.42	$13.52	+$0.1	38% 72-117 (189)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$6.73	$7.08	+$0.35	33% 544-1092 (1636)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.62	$1.68	+$0.06	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.37	$0.35	-$0.01	53% 905-797 (1702)

Flaznorp

Invested

$520.43

Value

$520.97

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

sentrio

Invested

$225.3

Value

$225.07

PnL

-$0.23

Record

41%

533-763 (1296)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$28

PnL

+$0.97

Record

—

2-9 (11)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.08

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$1.04

Record

36%

204-357 (561)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$18.12

Value

$18.07

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

72-117 (189)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.73

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$0.35

Record

33%

544-1092 (1636)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.