Will Spain win on 2026-11-12?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 81¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 12

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

-$122.34

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 80.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$28.5K

Total Shares34,908

Combined PnL-$140.04

No4 traders

Total Value$655.1

Total Shares3,541

Combined PnL+$17.71

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 82¢	$27.8K	$27.6K	-$169.33	47% 3609-4021 (7630)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 18¢	$2.1K	$391.62	+$10.58	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 75.2¢	$303.36	$328.76	+$25.4	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 81¢	$310.85	$321.14	+$10.29	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 83.8¢	$278.03	$226.59	-$6.47	65% 2217-1215 (3432)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 18¢	$1.0K	$185	+$5	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$59.76	$61.42	+$1.66	48% 8401-8934 (17335)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$92.2	$17.06	+$0.46	57% 25537-19073 (44610)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$11.92	$9.71	+$0.06	51% 28858-28213 (57071)

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$27,770.12

Value

$27.6K

PnL

-$169.33

Record

47%

3609-4021 (7630)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$2,116.87

Value

$391.62

PnL

+$10.58

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$303.36

Value

$328.76

PnL

+$25.4

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$310.85

Value

$321.14

PnL

+$10.29

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$278.03

Value

$226.59

PnL

-$6.47

Record

65%

2217-1215 (3432)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$1,000

Value

$185

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$59.76

Value

$61.42

PnL

+$1.66

Record

48%

8401-8934 (17335)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$92.2

Value

$17.06

PnL

+$0.46

Record

57%

25537-19073 (44610)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.92

Value

$9.71

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.