Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Czechia vs. Spain end in a draw?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 11¢ · $89 held · ends Nov 12

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$89.08

Combined PnL

$4.29

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$50.82

Total Shares462

Combined PnL+$4.74

No2 traders

Total Value$38.26

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$0.46

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$48.28	$50.7	+$4.73	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 90¢	$19.8	$19.58	-$0.33	7% 7-88 (95)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$18.81	$18.68	-$0.13	48% 603-645 (1248)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.11	$0.12	+$0.02	27% 133-354 (487)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.28

Value

$50.7

PnL

+$4.73

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$0.33

Record

7-88 (95)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.02

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.