Will Czechia win on 2026-11-12?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 94¢ · $618 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$618.43
$13.82
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $316.41 | $316.23 | -$0.18 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $268.68 | $276.44 | +$7.76 | 50% 1390-1407 (2797) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $12.94 | $15.09 | +$2.16 | 30% 160-379 (539) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $5.54 | $9.7 | +$4.16 | — |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.05 | $0.98 | -$0.07 | 35% 176-320 (496) |
Invested
$316.41
Value
$316.23
PnL
-$0.18
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$268.68
Value
$276.44
PnL
+$7.76
Record
50%
1390-1407 (2797)
Invested
$12.94
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$2.16
Record
30%
160-379 (539)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$9.7
PnL
+$4.16
Record
—
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.07
Record
35%
176-320 (496)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.