Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cyprus vs. Montenegro: O/U 5.5

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (91%) · Over at 2.9¢ · $202 held · ended Nov 15

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 91%

Total Value

$202.04

Combined PnL

-$255.01

Smart Money Entry

6.4¢ → 2.9¢

-56% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$152.04

Total Shares5,652

Combined PnL-$211.01

Under1 trader

Total Value$50

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$44

Over — 91%Under — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 6.3¢	$301.46	$125.84	-$175.62	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 94¢	$94	$50	-$44	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 6.3¢	$19.75	$9.07	-$10.68	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 6.1¢	$17.36	$8.21	-$9.14	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 9.3¢	$7.44	$2.33	-$5.12	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 10.7¢	$5.38	$1.46	-$3.92	41% 126-183 (309)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 4.8¢	$2.4	$1.45	-$0.95	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 10.1¢	$4.91	$1.41	-$3.5	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 4.8¢	$1.92	$1.16	-$0.76	46% 877-1027 (1904)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 6.5¢	$2.38	$1.06	-$1.32	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$0.05	$0.05	+$0	35% 628-1146 (1774)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$301.46

Value

$125.84

PnL

-$175.62

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$94

Value

$50

PnL

-$44

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.75

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$10.68

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.36

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$9.14

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.44

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$5.12

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.38

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$3.92

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.95

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.91

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$3.5

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.76

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.38

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$1.32

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.0%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2378.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

2478.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.