Cyprus vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$1.87

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 90.5¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,776

Combined PnL+$77.52

Over7 traders

Total Value$307.63

Total Shares1,834

Combined PnL-$79.39

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 79.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$70.13	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 75.4¢	$282.46	$323.4	+$40.94	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.4¢	$156.39	$174.18	+$17.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 13.5¢	$126.07	$149.22	+$23.15
RN1CTR	Overavg 20¢	$309.4	$247.52	-$61.88	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 81¢	$75.52	$84.38	+$8.86	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 25.9¢	$54.41	$37.26	-$17.15	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 85.8¢	$26.31	$24.84	-$1.47	56% 665-530 (1195)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$8.54	$9.01	+$0.47	35% 628-1146 (1774)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 16.7¢	$5	$4.8	-$0.2	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$5	$3.2	-$1.8	41% 126-183 (309)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 13.5¢	$2.68	$3.18	+$0.5	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$1.99	$2.65	+$0.66	38% 1342-2205 (3547)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,347.71

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$70.13

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$282.46

Value

$323.4

PnL

+$40.94

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Under$156.3975.4¢+$17.79

Over$126.0713.5¢+$23.15

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$309.4

Value

$247.52

PnL

-$61.88

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$75.52

Value

$84.38

PnL

+$8.86

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.41

Value

$37.26

PnL

-$17.15

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$26.31

Value

$24.84

PnL

-$1.47

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.54

Value

$9.01

PnL

+$0.47

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.68

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.5

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.66

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.