Cyprus vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 75¢ · $46K held · ended Nov 15

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.1K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 74.5¢

+28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 18 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares40,498

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Over12 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares35,486

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI big8betz	Underavg 56.8¢	$20.6K	$27.0K	+$6.4K	51% 83-79 (162)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 43.1¢	$7.0K	$5.4K	$-1.6K	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
RN1CTR	Overavg 42.7¢	$6.0K	$4.5K	$-1.5K	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 43.5¢	$4.5K	$3.9K	-$631.08	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$25.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.5¢	$2.5K	$1.8K	-$656.18
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 41.7¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$438.01	35% 628-1146 (1774)
SU suntori	Underavg 70¢	$952.38	$1.0K	+$61.22	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
MO mouzsynapse	Underavg 68¢	$986.06	$986.06	-$0	41% 160-234 (394)
0xheavy888	Underavg 69¢	$530.92	$523.02	-$7.91	56% 665-530 (1195)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 68.5¢	$422.62	$419.56	-$3.06	48% 471-508 (979)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 46¢	$567.18	$394.56	-$172.62	45% 366-448 (814)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$197.92	$135.93	-$61.99	41% 126-183 (309)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$148.15	$79.82	-$68.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.1¢	$49.77	$56.11	+$6.34
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$578.43	$115.8	-$89.63	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.3¢	$113.16	$65.19	-$50.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.5¢	$45.89	$50.61	-$39.34
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 33.8¢	$116.13	$87.69	-$28.44	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 32.7¢	$52	$50.87	-$1.13	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 46.6¢	$47.93	$32.93	-$15.01	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 47.1¢	$34.99	$23.76	-$11.24	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 36.2¢	$33.19	$23.37	-$9.82	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$17.6	$17.6	+$0	56% 651-514 (1165)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$13.14	$10.51	-$2.63	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$10.12	$7.04	-$3.08	46% 972-1163 (2135)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$3.4	+$1	48% 2522-2734 (5256)

big8betz

Under

Invested

$20,600

Value

$27.0K

PnL

+$6.4K

Record

51%

83-79 (162)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$7,021.15

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$5,998.35

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,504.26

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$631.08

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Both legs:

Under$2,017.8867.2¢+$25.1

Over$2,486.3843.5¢-$656.18

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$1,887.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$438.01

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

suntori

Under

Invested

$952.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$61.22

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

mouzsynapse

Under

Invested

$986.06

Value

$986.06

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

160-234 (394)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$530.92

Value

$523.02

PnL

-$7.91

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$422.62

Value

$419.56

PnL

-$3.06

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$567.18

Value

$394.56

PnL

-$172.62

Record

45%

366-448 (814)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$197.92

Value

$135.93

PnL

-$61.99

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

Both legs:

Over$148.1547.3¢-$68.34

Under$49.7766.1¢+$6.34

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$578.43

Value

$115.8

PnL

-$89.63

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Both legs:

Over$113.1644.3¢-$50.28

Under$45.8967.5¢-$39.34

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$116.13

Value

$87.69

PnL

-$28.44

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52

Value

$50.87

PnL

-$1.13

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.93

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$15.01

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.99

Value

$23.76

PnL

-$11.24

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.19

Value

$23.37

PnL

-$9.82

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.6

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.14

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$2.63

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.12

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$3.08

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 18 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.