Cyprus vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 55¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$71.69

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 54.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares17,095

Combined PnL+$366.43

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares11,183

Combined PnL-$294.74

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52.5¢	$8.7K	$9.0K	+$338.8	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$93.56	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
JO jole24CTR	Underavg 49¢	$980	$880	-$100	40% 26-39 (65)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$580.72	$568.97	-$11.75	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 45¢	$416.25	$407	-$9.25	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 46¢	$405.41	$387.65	-$17.76	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 46¢	$368	$352	-$16	30% 486-1128 (1614)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$261.41	$258.44	-$2.97	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$167.81	$179.24	+$11.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$93.6	$79.2	-$14.4
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$239.92	$217.8	-$22.13	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$196	$176	-$20	56% 663-529 (1192)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45¢	$132.33	$129.39	-$2.94	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 49¢	$99.13	$113.29	+$14.16	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$95.11	$97.44	+$2.33	56% 649-514 (1163)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Overavg 49¢	$66.15	$75.59	+$9.45	35% 138-251 (389)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 45.3¢	$47.98	$46.64	-$1.34	35% 628-1146 (1774)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 52¢	$21.97	$23.66	+$1.69	43% 243-324 (567)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.04	$1.04	+$0	46% 3204-3750 (6954)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$8,675.54

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$338.8

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,848.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$93.56

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

jole24CTR

Under

Invested

$980

Value

$880

PnL

-$100

Record

40%

26-39 (65)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$580.72

Value

$568.97

PnL

-$11.75

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$416.25

Value

$407

PnL

-$9.25

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$405.41

Value

$387.65

PnL

-$17.76

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$368

Value

$352

PnL

-$16

Record

30%

486-1128 (1614)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$261.41

Value

$258.44

PnL

-$2.97

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Both legs:

Over$167.8152.4¢+$11.43

Under$93.652¢-$14.4

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$239.92

Value

$217.8

PnL

-$22.13

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$176

PnL

-$20

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$132.33

Value

$129.39

PnL

-$2.94

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$99.13

Value

$113.29

PnL

+$14.16

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$95.11

Value

$97.44

PnL

+$2.33

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

Oddstorm<$100

Over

Invested

$66.15

Value

$75.59

PnL

+$9.45

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.98

Value

$46.64

PnL

-$1.34

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$21.97

Value

$23.66

PnL

+$1.69

Record

43%

243-324 (567)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.