Cyprus vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over77¢Under23¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$19.48

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 76.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL-$32.4

Under6 traders

Total Value$434.49

Total Shares1,875

Combined PnL+$12.92

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Overavg 80¢	$952.38	$910.71	-$41.67	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
0xheavy888	Overavg 78¢	$312	$314	+$2	56% 663-529 (1192)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 78¢	$209.18	$180.97	+$6.3	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 20¢	$161.83	$162.57	+$0.74	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 22.1¢	$137.71	$146.28	+$8.57	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 22.6¢	$113.24	$117.68	+$4.44	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 72¢	$8.74	$9.71	+$0.97	56% 649-514 (1163)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$4.51	$3.92	-$0.59	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$2.77	$2.84	+$0.06	42% 547-747 (1294)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.51	$1.21	-$0.3	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

suntori

Over

Invested

$952.38

Value

$910.71

PnL

-$41.67

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$312

Value

$314

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$209.18

Value

$180.97

PnL

+$6.3

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$161.83

Value

$162.57

PnL

+$0.74

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$137.71

Value

$146.28

PnL

+$8.57

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$113.24

Value

$117.68

PnL

+$4.44

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$8.74

Value

$9.71

PnL

+$0.97

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.51

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$0.59

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.06

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.