Will Montenegro win on 2026-11-15?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 59¢ · $439 held · ends Nov 15

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$438.68

Combined PnL

$10.87

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 58.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$229.61

Total Shares396

Combined PnL+$10.13

Yes3 traders

Total Value$58.02

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$0.74

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntoriARB<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$156.11	$151.05	-$1.12	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.6¢	$102.08	$101	-$1.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42¢	$50.05	$50.05	-$0
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 58¢	$93.5	$93.5	+$0	48% 468-503 (971)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$64.75	$66.46	+$1.71	56% 636-504 (1140)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$53.77	$54.8	+$1.03	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.2¢	$43	$43.87	+$0.88	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$57.51	$12.16	+$7.35	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$9.05	$8.84	-$0.21	62% 263-160 (423)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$5.23	$5.31	+$0.08	41% 1163-1648 (2811)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.65	$2.7	+$0.05	35% 612-1118 (1730)

suntoriARB<$100

Invested

$156.11

Value

$151.05

PnL

-$1.12

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

Both legs:

No$102.0858.6¢-$1.12

Yes$50.0542¢-$0

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$93.5

Value

$93.5

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$64.75

Value

$66.46

PnL

+$1.71

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.77

Value

$54.8

PnL

+$1.03

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43

Value

$43.87

PnL

+$0.88

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$57.51

Value

$12.16

PnL

+$7.35

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.05

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$0.21

Record

62%

263-160 (423)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

1163-1648 (2811)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

612-1118 (1730)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.