Montenegro leading at halftime?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$457.97

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,977

Combined PnL+$13.58

No5 traders

Total Value$204.64

Total Shares1,705

Combined PnL-$471.56

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wesolyjasiu	Yesavg 99.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$1.05	100% 52-0 (52)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 93¢	$682	$732.77	+$50.77	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 9.8¢	$83.42	$101.81	+$18.39	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$63.76	$76.74	+$12.98	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 94.4¢	$157.55	$70.98	-$51.21	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 69¢	$226.65	$39.42	-$187.23	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 69¢	$199.69	$34.73	-$164.96	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 69.5¢	$118.84	$20.52	-$98.32	48% 471-508 (979)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$47.6	$8.16	-$39.44	56% 651-514 (1165)

wesolyjasiu

Yes

Invested

$2,094.11

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.05

Record

100%

52-0 (52)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$682

Value

$732.77

PnL

+$50.77

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$83.42

Value

$101.81

PnL

+$18.39

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.76

Value

$76.74

PnL

+$12.98

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$157.55

Value

$70.98

PnL

-$51.21

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$226.65

Value

$39.42

PnL

-$187.23

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$199.69

Value

$34.73

PnL

-$164.96

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$118.84

Value

$20.52

PnL

-$98.32

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$47.6

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$39.44

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.