Cyprus vs. Montenegro: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 100¢ · $981 held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$981.02

Combined PnL

-$44.84

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$975.95

Total Shares978

Combined PnL+$43.23

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.07

Total Shares1,248

Combined PnL-$88.07

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Overavg 97.9¢	$491.47	$501.85	+$10.38	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
SM smithagent	Overavg 97.3¢	$207.22	$212.89	+$5.67	46% 877-1027 (1904)
dips.<$100	Overavg 98¢	$97.9	$99.85	+$1.95	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 92¢	$81.77	$88.84	+$7.07	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 68¢	$31.94	$46.03	+$14.09	56% 651-514 (1165)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 91¢	$16.98	$18.65	+$1.67	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Overavg 68¢	$5.44	$7.84	+$2.4	59% 747-512 (1259)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 29.6¢	$56.5	$3.81	-$52.69	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 29.8¢	$11.12	$0.75	-$10.37	41% 1175-1673 (2848)
AP apprentice15CTR<$100	Underavg 1.9¢	$19.49	$0.5	-$18.99	8% 8-93 (101)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$6.03	$0.01	-$6.02	37% 1336-2230 (3566)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$491.47

Value

$501.85

PnL

+$10.38

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

smithagent

Over

Invested

$207.22

Value

$212.89

PnL

+$5.67

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$97.9

Value

$99.85

PnL

+$1.95

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$81.77

Value

$88.84

PnL

+$7.07

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$31.94

Value

$46.03

PnL

+$14.09

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$16.98

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$1.67

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

lonmi2511<$100

Over

Invested

$5.44

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$2.4

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.5

Value

$3.81

PnL

-$52.69

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.12

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$10.37

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

apprentice15CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.49

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$18.99

Record

8-93 (101)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.03

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.02

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.