Exact Score: Cyprus 1 - 2 Montenegro?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$11.65

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 86.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$939.34

Total Shares1,077

Combined PnL-$13.84

Yes2 traders

Total Value$76.41

Total Shares554

Combined PnL+$25.49

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 90.8¢	$348.01	$331.42	-$16.59	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86¢	$274.3	$275.98	+$1.68	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90¢	$171.54	$163.92	-$7.62	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 89¢	$85.77	$82.88	-$2.89	48% 471-508 (979)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$39.97	$62.18	+$22.21	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$34.31	$33.15	-$1.16	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 90¢	$25.65	$24.51	-$1.14	42% 548-747 (1295)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$10.94	$14.22	+$3.28	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 87.7¢	$105.65	$11.78	+$14.14	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 86¢	$11.27	$11.27	-$0	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.69	$4.43	-$0.26	38% 1342-2182 (3524)

LightParadox

Invested

$348.01

Value

$331.42

PnL

-$16.59

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Flaznorp

Invested

$274.3

Value

$275.98

PnL

+$1.68

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

SnakeBall

Invested

$171.54

Value

$163.92

PnL

-$7.62

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$85.77

Value

$82.88

PnL

-$2.89

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.97

Value

$62.18

PnL

+$22.21

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.31

Value

$33.15

PnL

-$1.16

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$25.65

Value

$24.51

PnL

-$1.14

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.94

Value

$14.22

PnL

+$3.28

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

38791873984189

Invested

$105.65

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$14.14

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$11.27

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$4.69

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.26

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.