Will Cyprus win on 2026-11-15?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$8.06

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 68.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares10,517

Combined PnL-$21.4

No9 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,062

Combined PnL+$13.35

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Yesavg 31.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$36.57	58% 114-81 (195)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 69¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$0	2% 5-204 (209)
GC GC-P	Noavg 68.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.5	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-P	Noavg 68.1¢	$659.06	$667.56	+$8.5	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$532.51	$542.26	+$9.74	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 30.7¢	$186.86	$191.62	+$4.75	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 69¢	$145.95	$144.89	-$1.06	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 68.2¢	$127.52	$74.52	-$0.97	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$69.37	$68.56	-$0.81	56% 649-514 (1163)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 70¢	$57.13	$56.31	-$0.82	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 69¢	$27.6	$27.6	-$0	32% 127-269 (396)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$13.95	$14.18	+$0.23	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$10.84	$11.2	+$0.36	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$5.34	$5.42	+$0.09	34% 460-894 (1354)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.37	$4.37	-$0	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

Zzzz87CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,628.08

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$36.57

Record

58%

114-81 (195)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,069.97

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

5-204 (209)

GC-P

Invested

$1,095.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$8.5

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-P

Invested

$659.06

Value

$667.56

PnL

+$8.5

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$532.51

Value

$542.26

PnL

+$9.74

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$186.86

Value

$191.62

PnL

+$4.75

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

LightParadox

Invested

$145.95

Value

$144.89

PnL

-$1.06

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

38791873984189

Invested

$127.52

Value

$74.52

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$69.37

Value

$68.56

PnL

-$0.81

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

suntori<$100

Invested

$57.13

Value

$56.31

PnL

-$0.82

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.6

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

127-269 (396)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.95

Value

$14.18

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.84

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$0.36

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0.09

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.