Cyprus vs. Montenegro: Both Teams to Score
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 22%
$1.7K
-$30.67
60.3¢ → 58.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-51 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Yesavg 60.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$33.77 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
LO lonmi2511CTR | Noavg 39¢ | $320 | $320 | +$0 | 59% 746-512 (1258) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 41.9¢ | $178.9 | $181.48 | +$2.58 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $58.43 | $60.61 | +$2.18 | 48% 3948-4293 (8241) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $16.31 | $18.77 | +$2.46 | 56% 649-514 (1163) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $14.85 | $12.87 | -$1.98 | 36% 201-360 (561) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $11.28 | $9.77 | -$1.5 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $5.2 | $5.14 | -$0.07 | 38% 1314-2163 (3477) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $4.36 | $3.78 | -$0.58 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
Invested
$1,081.53
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$33.77
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$320
Value
$320
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
746-512 (1258)
Invested
$178.9
Value
$181.48
PnL
+$2.58
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$58.43
Value
$60.61
PnL
+$2.18
Record
48%
3948-4293 (8241)
Invested
$16.31
Value
$18.77
PnL
+$2.46
Record
56%
649-514 (1163)
Invested
$14.85
Value
$12.87
PnL
-$1.98
Record
36%
201-360 (561)
Invested
$11.28
Value
$9.77
PnL
-$1.5
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.07
Record
38%
1314-2163 (3477)
Invested
$4.36
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.58
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.