Bulgaria vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$1.5K
$23.37
74¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 74¢ | $831.75 | $837.37 | +$5.62 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
VE VenusianCTR | Overavg 24¢ | $132.33 | $272.93 | +$140.6 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 74¢ | $296 | $202 | -$94 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $69.56 | $47.47 | -$22.09 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $63.64 | $43.43 | -$20.21 | 56% 309-246 (555) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $19.33 | $38.26 | +$18.94 | 36% 763-1361 (2124) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $22.69 | $15.48 | -$7.21 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $1.49 | $3.21 | +$1.72 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
Invested
$831.75
Value
$837.37
PnL
+$5.62
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$132.33
Value
$272.93
PnL
+$140.6
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
0xheavy888Invested
$296
Value
$202
PnL
-$94
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$69.56
Value
$47.47
PnL
-$22.09
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$63.64
Value
$43.43
PnL
-$20.21
Record
56%
309-246 (555)
Invested
$19.33
Value
$38.26
PnL
+$18.94
Record
36%
763-1361 (2124)
Invested
$22.69
Value
$15.48
PnL
-$7.21
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$3.21
PnL
+$1.72
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.