Spread: Iceland (-1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bulgaria (50%) · Bulgaria at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Iceland30¢Bulgaria70¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bulgaria

Consensus Traders

Bulgaria 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$3.26

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 70.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBulgaria at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulgaria

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iceland30%

Bulgaria71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulgaria5 traders

Total Value$963.31

Total Shares1,327

Combined PnL+$5.29

Iceland5 traders

Total Value$256.4

Total Shares855

Combined PnL-$2.03

Bulgaria — 50%Iceland — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bulgaria. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulgaria 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bulgaria 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Bulgariaavg 70¢	$518.8	$526.21	+$7.41	6% 17-277 (294)
0xheavy888	Bulgariaavg 71¢	$321.19	$288.26	-$1.89	53% 388-339 (727)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Icelandavg 28.8¢	$154.71	$158.26	+$3.55	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Bulgariaavg 69.7¢	$86.14	$87.75	+$1.61	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Icelandavg 29.8¢	$62.81	$60.15	-$2.66	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bulgariaavg 72¢	$49.98	$48.32	-$1.66	56% 307-245 (552)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Icelandavg 30¢	$56.61	$24.5	-$2.12	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Bulgariaavg 72¢	$12.96	$12.78	-$0.18	47% 189-212 (401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Icelandavg 30¢	$12.62	$11.98	-$0.63	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Icelandavg 31¢	$1.68	$1.52	-$0.16	36% 761-1361 (2122)

rayvanmechelen

Bulgaria

Invested

$518.8

Value

$526.21

PnL

+$7.41

Record

17-277 (294)

0xheavy888

Bulgaria

Invested

$321.19

Value

$288.26

PnL

-$1.89

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

FlaznorpCTR

Iceland

Invested

$154.71

Value

$158.26

PnL

+$3.55

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Bulgaria

Invested

$86.14

Value

$87.75

PnL

+$1.61

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

LimousinCTR<$100

Iceland

Invested

$62.81

Value

$60.15

PnL

-$2.66

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bulgaria

Invested

$49.98

Value

$48.32

PnL

-$1.66

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Iceland

Invested

$56.61

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$2.12

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Bulgaria

Invested

$12.96

Value

$12.78

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Iceland

Invested

$12.62

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Iceland

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.16

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Research grade

NeutralBulgaria at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulgaria

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bulgaria. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulgaria 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bulgaria 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulgaria wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.