Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bulgaria vs. Iceland end in a draw?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 26¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$1.73

Smart Money Entry

26¢ → 25.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$862.39

Total Shares3,050

Combined PnL+$1.08

No2 traders

Total Value$123.46

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$0.66

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$11.66	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$689.33	$703.49	+$14.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.7¢	$346.75	$344.25	-$2.5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$634.25	$640.4	+$6.15	33% 251-499 (750)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$365	$370	+$5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.9¢	$269.25	$270.4	+$1.15
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$484.85	$485.61	+$0.76	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$223	$223	-$0	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$107.22	$107.39	+$0.18	43% 808-1065 (1873)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 74¢	$97.57	$98.23	+$0.66	22% 266-965 (1231)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 74¢	$25.24	$25.24	+$0	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$18.2	$18.2	-$0	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$14.28	$14.01	-$0.27	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$10	$9.63	-$0.37	10% 11-100 (111)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$43.38	$4.55	+$0.78	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,036.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.66

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

No$689.3373¢+$14.16

Yes$346.7525.7¢-$2.5

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$634.25

Value

$640.4

PnL

+$6.15

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

No$36573¢+$5

Yes$269.2525.9¢+$1.15

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$484.85

Value

$485.61

PnL

+$0.76

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$223

Value

$223

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.22

Value

$107.39

PnL

+$0.18

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$97.57

Value

$98.23

PnL

+$0.66

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$25.24

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.01

PnL

-$0.27

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.37

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.38

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.