Will Bulgaria win on 2026-11-13?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
$1.4K
$9.67
79.8¢ → 80.5¢
+1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 79.6¢ | $469.35 | $471.46 | +$2.11 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 79.9¢ | $387.78 | $388.38 | +$0.6 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $173.23 | $177.79 | +$4.56 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 80¢ | $160 | $162 | +$2 | 53% 388-339 (727) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $45.6 | $46.17 | +$0.57 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $41.01 | $40.42 | -$0.59 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $27.65 | $27.95 | +$0.3 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $22.49 | $22.21 | -$0.28 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $11.83 | $11.98 | +$0.15 | 43% 68-91 (159) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $11.29 | $11.43 | +$0.14 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $10.28 | $10.38 | +$0.1 | 30% 77-180 (257) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $4.76 | $4.76 | +$0 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.9 | $1.9 | +$0 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
Invested
$469.35
Value
$471.46
PnL
+$2.11
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$387.78
Value
$388.38
PnL
+$0.6
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$173.23
Value
$177.79
PnL
+$4.56
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
0xheavy888Invested
$160
Value
$162
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
388-339 (727)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$46.17
PnL
+$0.57
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$41.01
Value
$40.42
PnL
-$0.59
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
Invested
$27.65
Value
$27.95
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$22.49
Value
$22.21
PnL
-$0.28
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$11.83
Value
$11.98
PnL
+$0.15
Record
43%
68-91 (159)
Invested
$11.29
Value
$11.43
PnL
+$0.14
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$10.28
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$0.1
Record
30%
77-180 (257)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.