Belarus vs. Albania: O/U 4.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 97¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$68.48

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 96.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,740

Combined PnL+$55.99

Over6 traders

Total Value$232.65

Total Shares4,756

Combined PnL-$124.47

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92.5¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$52.15	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 94.8¢	$414.75	$415.21	+$0.46	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 92¢	$210.68	$214.12	+$3.44	48% 472-515 (987)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 8¢	$145.44	$90.9	-$54.54	44% 337-422 (759)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 8¢	$143.95	$64.78	-$79.17	50% 747-737 (1484)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 5.2¢	$182.46	$39.15	+$0.46	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 6.8¢	$13.6	$16.8	+$3.2	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 93.6¢	$15.98	$15.78	-$0.2	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$8.64	$12.1	+$3.46	45% 369-454 (823)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 95¢	$9.69	$9.83	+$0.14	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 6.4¢	$6.8	$8.93	+$2.13	49% 1336-1411 (2747)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$4,685.51

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$52.15

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$414.75

Value

$415.21

PnL

+$0.46

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$210.68

Value

$214.12

PnL

+$3.44

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$145.44

Value

$90.9

PnL

-$54.54

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$143.95

Value

$64.78

PnL

-$79.17

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$182.46

Value

$39.15

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.6

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$3.2

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$15.98

Value

$15.78

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.64

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$3.46

Record

45%

369-454 (823)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$0.14

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.8

Value

$8.93

PnL

+$2.13

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.